December 29, 2006

49.10PHP:1USD

Nitong nakaraang mga araw ay ipinagbubunyi ng GMA admin ang pagpalo ng ating exchange rate sa 49.10PHP:1USD. Kanina umabot pa ito ng 49.05PHP:1USD. Ang galing galing daw ni GMA! Ang galing ng kanyang fiscal reforms! Six-year high! Sign of an improving economy!

Ako naman tawa nang tawa. Joke joke joke na naman ito e. Ngayon sabihin niyo na naman na masyado akong anti-admin, lahat na lang pinupuna ko. Pero consider this:

a. Yes, six-year high nga ang peso. Pero sino ba yung presidente six years ago? Si GMA rin! Nung unang buwan ng panunungkulan ni GMA, ang average exchange rate ay 48.29PHP:1USD. Nung kanyang ikalawang buwan ay 48.47PHP:1USD. Eto, tingnan niyo dito. Ibig sabihin, nakakabalik pa lang tayo sa level ng exchange rate nang magsimulang manungkulan si GMA kasi the average exchange rate during her term reached a low of 56PHP:1USD nung 2004. Ni hindi niya naabot ang exchange rate nung panahon ni Erap. Yes, the economy is recovering...from the fiscal missteps the GMA admin itself has wrought on the economy. Yaiks! Let us celebrate?

b. It takes two to tango sa exchange rate. In this case, Philippine Peso at ang US Dollar. Six years ago, matino pa nang konti ang US economy dahil wala pang 9/11, wala pang War on Terror, wala pa yung War on Iraq at hindi pa nagskyrocket ang oil prices. How much of the appreciation of the peso is due to the improvement of the Philippine economy and how much is due to the downturn of the US economy? That's right, we can not really say how much. Although kung isa kang admin sycophant, sasabihin mo na 100% due to the improvement of the Philippine economy.

c. Bakit daw ba tumaas ang exchange rate natin? Dahil sa record number of remmitances. Bakit maraming remittances? Kasi maraming Pilipino ang nangibang-bansa na para magtrabaho. Bakit sila sa ibang bansa nagtrabaho? Kasi wala silang mahanap na trabaho dito o kaya yung trabahong nakukuha nila dito ay di sapat ang kikitain para buhayin ang mga pamilya nila.

Pagpasensyahan niyo na ako kung di ako nagrerejoice sa ating 6-year high. Pero napatawa naman ako kasi we are finally recovering...from ourselves! Yahoo!!!

4 comments:

Sa Wari Ko said...

AND THEN ...?

Ang tema ng blog na ito ay nabasa ko na somewhere, at ang conclusion ay ganon din ...

Wala.

Nagoffer ba ng solution ang writer, No.

Naappreciate ba niya ang good side ng 49.10 rate, I do not know.

Pero isa lang nakikita kong malinaw, nagtuturo ang kaniyang daliri kung sino ang dapat na sisihin. Implicit or explicit, take a pick!

Ano naman sa kabilang banda, ang nagawa niya para mapa "improve" ang economy na "naghihingalo"?

Anonymous said...

This guy sees nothing but the blot of black ink in the white piece of cloth. Nothing else.

Whiner!

Sa Wari Ko, dont waste your time to comment.

Errr, I just wasted mine.

Anonymous said...

Ako ay isang simpleng Pilipino. Isang ama, I have 4 yr old daughter. Isang asawa. At isang ring anak. Ako nga pala ay 31 years old. May negosyo rin nga pala ako. Isang imprenta. May 15 taong binibigyan ng sweldo linggo-linggo.

Nagkaroon na ako ng opportunity na umalis ng bansa natin. Pero, I chose to stick it out here. Because, I want to make a difference. Ako ang simula.

I don't need analysis like this. What you have are sweeping statements. Kung introduction mo lang ito sa thesis, eh siguradong bagsak ang grade mo. Be more responsible in what you write. Since you post it on public. Get to the root of the facts. Do some quantitative research. Speak to a neutral economist, I suggest visiting International Investment Houses. Go to The Makati Stock Exchange, talk to the brokers. I hope you get the point. I hope you re-write this blog, after you have done your research. Give me real numbers.

I'm not pro administration or whatever. But I just want to move, build, create, make a positive output for my country. My daughter's country. Our country.

Paeng said...

^ investment houses are not neutral economists. they do not care about poverty incidence, or the trickling down of wealth or income from the rich to the poor. all that they care about is whether their clients, which make up the top 5% of society in terms of income, are expanding their wealth. as a NEDA director said in a Talkback episode last night, sure, the stock market hit record highs, but who's playing the stock market?

How much of the appreciation of the peso against the dollar is due to the strengthening of the peso and not the weakening of the dollar? Again, we can not say. The dollar has been weakening, just look at this article. Heck, the British pound has reached a 14 year high against the dollar nung umpisa pa lang ng December. All currencies are hitting record-highs against the dollar, so how much can we attribute to the improvement of the Philippine economy?

And as provided in an earlier link, GMA started her presidency with a P48.2897:1USD exchange rate. yesterday, we are at P48.857. so has the currency strengthened over her term? or has the currency strengthened relative to the lows it hit during her term?

Ngayon tungkol sa pagtaas ng inflow ng foreign exchange sa Pilipinas, how much is due to investor confidence and how much is due to OFWs? Kung titingnan mo rito, for the first 8 months of 2006, $8.098B ang naipasok sa ating bansa ng mga OFWs. Compare natin sa foreign direct investment na $1.3B during the same period. Meron ding $1.02B na portfolio investment for the same time period, per hot money yan e, madaling tanggaling sa market (remember 1997?).

If you would actually look at the Leading Economic Indicators index, we haven't even done better compared to last year. For my contention that OFWs are increasing because they can't find opportunities here, well employment has not actually improved, and I have to warn you that employment data for the past years is quite misleading because they changed the definition of unemployed by removing people who do not have jobs but are not actively looking for work.

Is seeing the negative side in supposedly positive news in the country bad? No. Ayoko lang na nagkakalokohan dahil amidst all these positive economic news, napakaraming tao ang naghihirap at hindi ito nararamdaman. As for calling me on not providing numbers, well, you got one thing right. My post would not pass as an intro to a thesis. But this is not a thesis. This is a blog. :)

And for all the arguments against my post here, what numbers are you presenting? Wala rin naman.